The March friendlies against Uruguay and Japan aren't just warm-ups — they're the last real audition before Thomas Tuchel locks in his 26-man World Cup squad. Some spots are already decided. Others are being fought over right now.
Here's where things actually stand, player by player.
The players already on the plane
Jordan Pickford (1/50) is England's goalkeeper. Full stop. Dean Henderson (1/20) has nailed down the backup role with consistent form at Crystal Palace. The only genuine competition is for the third spot, where James Trafford (1/2) leads Nick Pope (6/1) despite limited minutes at City — a gap Pope is quietly closing with regular game time at Newcastle.
Outfield, the certainties are well-established. Harry Kane (1/33) has scored 31 Bundesliga goals in 26 games this season and is threatening Lewandowski's all-time record of 42. He's not just in the squad — he's the squad's entire attacking identity. Bukayo Saka (1/33) and Declan Rice (1/40) are equally untouchable, both central to Arsenal's dominance in the Premier League and Champions League this year.
Jude Bellingham (1/10) is back fit after a hamstring scare, and coming off a La Liga and Champions League double with Real Madrid. His odds reflect certainty, not value — but if you want a safe return, there are worse places to put money. Cole Palmer (1/16) earned his place the hard way: Conference League final Man of the Match, Club World Cup Golden Ball, and a recall for the March window despite recent injury disruption. Tuchel clearly rates him highly.
At the back, Marc Guehi (1/25) and Ezri Konsa (1/20) are as close to locked in as defenders get. Elliot Anderson (1/20) is the quieter inclusion — he was in the best XI of England's U21 European Championship win in 2025 and has carried that form into regular senior call-ups. Anthony Gordon (1/25) has surged into near-certainty territory on the back of a strong Newcastle season, his pace and directness giving England a different dimension out wide.
Where the real betting interest lies
The fringe is where this gets interesting. Jarrod Bowen (1/2) looks slightly undervalued — he's been one of West Ham's most consistent attacking outlets all season, he has international experience, and he's in the March squad. A strong performance against Uruguay or Japan could see that price drop sharply.
Kobbie Mainoo (8/11) is pushing hard for a midfield spot that was never guaranteed but feels increasingly likely. His composure at Manchester United — even in a difficult season for the club — has stood out, and Tuchel has shown he's willing to trust younger players when they earn it.
Nico O'Reilly (1/4) is the most intriguing left-back option. A City academy product who fits Tuchel's profile of a versatile, two-phase player, his odds have shortened quickly. Reece James (4/7) has finally put together a run of consistent minutes at Chelsea and his experience makes him a strong right-back option when fit.
For the true long shots, Max Dowman (Arsenal) and Rio Ngumoha (Liverpool) are both available at 14/1. They'd need something extraordinary to make a senior World Cup squad at this stage of their careers — but at that price, a small-stakes flutter costs very little and the upside is obvious if either explodes in the coming months.
Who might actually miss out
Trent Alexander-Arnold (6/4 to miss) is the most striking omission story of this cycle. His Real Madrid debut season has been plagued by injury, he wasn't called up for the March friendlies, and his last England appearance was as a substitute back in the summer of 2025. The competition at both right-back and midfield — his two potential positions — has moved on without him.
Ollie Watkins (2/1) is in genuine trouble. Three goals in 16 games for Aston Villa since January is a damaging run at the worst possible time. Tuchel said his absence from the March squad was about testing other options — but managers don't always say what they mean, and the underlying numbers don't help Watkins' case.
Luke Shaw (3/1) remains a fitness concern at Manchester United, with quality alternatives now established at left-back. Marcus Rashford (1/4) is in a better position than any of them — he's in the March squad and will get a direct chance to make his case — but inconsistency at United means his place is earned rather than assumed.
- Jordan Pickford — 1/50 (certain)
- Harry Kane — 1/33 (certain)
- Bukayo Saka — 1/33 (certain)
- Declan Rice — 1/40 (certain)
- Jude Bellingham — 1/10 (certain)
- Cole Palmer — 1/16 (near certain)
- Phil Foden — 1/6 (near certain)
- Marc Guehi — 1/25 (near certain)
- Ezri Konsa — 1/20 (near certain)
- Anthony Gordon — 1/25 (near certain)
- Elliot Anderson — 1/20 (near certain)
- Dean Henderson — 1/20 (near certain)
- Jarrod Bowen — 1/2 (value pick)
- Kobbie Mainoo — 8/11 (value pick)
- Nico O'Reilly — 1/4 (value pick)
- Trent Alexander-Arnold — 6/4 (at serious risk)
- Ollie Watkins — 2/1 (at serious risk)
- Luke Shaw — 3/1 (at serious risk)
Odds provided by bet365 and are subject to change. Gamble responsibly — GambleAware.org | 18+
