Spain won the World Cup. Messi didn't. That one result reshaped the entire 2026 Ballon d'Or conversation.
Argentina's 1-0 defeat to Spain in the New Jersey final ended what would have been Messi's clearest path to a record ninth award. Instead, Rodri — who won the 2024 edition and was named player of the tournament at this summer's World Cup — enters the ceremony as the man to beat. A second Ballon d'Or for the City midfielder would have felt unthinkable a couple of years ago. Right now, it's entirely plausible.
Who's actually in the running
Lamine Yamal is in the conversation off the back of a standout season at Barcelona. Kylian Mbappé and Harry Kane are lurking. And then there's Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, whose PSG side retained the Champions League last term — he could follow his teammate Ousmane Dembélé as winner if the voters weight club success heavily, which the current criteria actively encourages.
That criteria shift matters. Since 2022, France Football has pushed voters away from career-long assessments — the loophole that helped Messi edge Lewandowski in 2021 despite the numbers pointing elsewhere — and toward a sharper, season-specific lens: individual impact, team achievements, and fair play. It doesn't eliminate the reputation factor entirely, but it narrows the gap between a living legend and a player who simply had the better 12 months.
How the voting actually works
France Football and L'Equipe journalists compile a shortlist of 30 players. From there, media members from the top 100 nations in the FIFA men's world ranking each cast a ballot, ranking their picks in order. Those votes are tabulated to produce the final standings — and crucially, every ballot is published publicly in the days after the ceremony. Names, outlets, rankings. All of it.
The shift to 100 nations (down from 180+) was introduced for the 2022 edition alongside the criteria changes. The logic: fewer, more football-relevant voices rather than a sprawling global panel where a journalist from a minnow nation carries the same weight as one covering a top-ten FIFA-ranked country.
- Individual performances: decisive actions and overall on-pitch impact
- Team performances and achievements: trophies and tournament runs count
- Class and fair play
The ceremony is set for Monday, October 26, 2026 in London — the first time the gala has left Paris for England's capital. The reported venue is the London Palladium, which opened in 1910. Kickoff is 8 p.m. local time, 3 p.m. ET.
With Messi out of pole position and no single dominant force, Rodri's World Cup player of the tournament award may end up being the decisive data point on the night. Spain won everything. He was their best player. Under the current criteria, that's a strong hand.
