Forty-eight hours. That's all that separates us from the 2026 World Cup kicking off in Mexico City, and the debate about who's actually going to win it has never been noisier — or murkier. ESPN's panel of 20 global reporters have cast their final pre-tournament ballots, and the results say as much about uncertainty as they do about genuine quality.
Spain on top — for now
Spain hold the No. 1 spot, picking up more first-place votes than at the 30-day mark despite a squad riddled with questions. The biggest one is Lamine Yamal, the teenage winger who's been nursing a torn hamstring and was left behind in Chattanooga while the rest of the squad flew to Puebla for their final warm-up against Peru. Luis de la Fuente insists he'll be ready for the opener against Cape Verde on June 15. We'll see.
Even without that uncertainty, Spain's issues run deeper. Rodri has had an injury-plagued season. The goalkeeper spot is unsettled — Unai Simón is the incumbent but has looked shaky. Their central defenders, a group of Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte and Eric García, haven't inspired confidence. Then there's that 1-1 draw with Egypt in warm-up, where Spain generated just four chances despite having two-thirds of possession. Four chances. Against Egypt. Spain's title odds deserve a small asterisk next to them until Yamal is confirmed fit and firing.
France sit second with six first-place votes, which feels justified. Didier Deschamps is managing his last World Cup and has the squad to finish the job — Ousmane Dembélé, Michael Olise and Désiré Doué is a frightening attacking combination. A 2-1 warm-up loss to Ivory Coast raised eyebrows, but the William Saliba injury scare that had French fans panicking has been resolved, with doctors clearing him despite a long-standing back complaint.
Argentina are third and the defending champions, chasing what would be the first back-to-back World Cup titles since Brazil in 1958 and 1962. Messi has aged like a fine wine under careful load management at Inter Miami, but this squad has aged less gracefully around him. Cristian Romero is racing fit after a knee injury sustained during Tottenham's relegation battle. Alexis Mac Allister had a quiet season at Liverpool by his standards. Julián Álvarez has scored three times in all competitions since early April. Scaloni has work to do, though a gentle group draw — Algeria, Austria, Jordan — gives Argentina room to breathe.
England's gamble and the Kane factor
England are fourth and collected zero first-place votes, which tells you everything about the mood around this squad. Thomas Tuchel left out Trent Alexander-Arnold, Cole Palmer, Phil Foden, Harry Maguire and Adam Wharton — names who expected the call — and brought in Ivan Toney, John Stones and Jordan Henderson instead. It's a bold selection that's made England significantly harder to price up.
What underpins any optimism around England is Harry Kane, who scored 64 goals in 56 games for Bayern Munich this season. That's the kind of form that wins tournaments. Around him, Bukayo Saka, Anthony Gordon and Noni Madueke provide width and pace, while Declan Rice — 55 appearances for Arsenal this season — anchors the midfield. If Tuchel's tactical discipline holds, England can go far. But those dropped players won't be forgotten quickly if things go wrong.
Brazil at five come with their usual cocktail of excitement and anxiety. Carlo Ancelotti has assembled what could charitably be described as a vibes-based attacking unit: Vinicius Jr., Raphinha, Matheus Cunha and Igor Thiago — who bagged 22 Premier League goals for Brentford — in a potential 4-2-4. No recognised No. 9, no full-back depth to speak of, and young winger Estêvão already ruled out injured. Yet warm-up wins over Panama (6-2) and Egypt (2-1) suggest Ancelotti's gamble has at least early merit.
- Portugal (6th): Bruno Fernandes needs to be the axis, not Ronaldo. Martinez knows it. Whether CR7, at 41 and chasing his last major trophy, will accept a secondary role is the season-long subplot in one group-stage question.
- Germany (7th): Jamal Musiala's form, Florian Wirtz's adjustment to Liverpool and Manuel Neuer — who turned 40 in March, unretired three weeks ago, and missed half the season — are three legitimate concerns stacked on top of each other.
- Netherlands (8th): Virgil van Dijk played every single minute of Liverpool's 38-game Premier League season. Goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen is a fitness doubt after landing awkwardly in their last warm-up. And yet you still wouldn't completely rule out the Dutch making a deep run — that pedigree is real.
- Morocco (9th): Walid Regragui was replaced in March by Mohamed Ouahbi, formerly the U20 boss. Hakimi's fitness is the key variable; without him at full throttle, their attacking options are considerably diminished.
- Norway (10th): Haaland and Ødegaard is the kind of 1-2 punch that keeps defenders awake. They thumped Italy 4-1 in qualifying playoffs to get here. Group I — France, Senegal, Iraq — is brutal, but the Norwegians have the ceiling to cause real problems if they escape it.
Rounding out the top 15: Belgium (11th) arrive with De Bruyne past his peak and Lukaku a fitness gamble after just seven club appearances this season; Colombia (12th) carry genuine danger through Luis Díaz and a cohesive squad that 14 players have over 30 caps in; Senegal (13th) are strong enough to threaten France in the group stage; Croatia (14th) are doing what Croatia always do — being quietly dangerous behind Modric, Perisic and Kovacic despite their combined age approaching 112; and Japan (15th) face the tournament without Kaoru Mitoma and Takumi Minamino, both ruled out injured.
The World Cup kicks off June 11. Spain are the pick of the panel — but the gap between them and the chasing pack is smaller than those three extra first-place votes suggest.
