France go into the 2026 World Cup as the team to beat — and Didier Deschamps knows exactly how dangerous that is. "By experience," he warned, "it isn't when a French sportsman is feeling comfortable that they are better." Most of his pre-tournament work has been spent fighting off complacency rather than drilling shape. That tells you everything about the depth of talent in that squad.
But this is a 48-team tournament now. Gianni Infantino's expanded fever dream is reality, which means Group L exists, there are more group stage games in 2026 than there were total matches at any previous World Cup, and three nations outside the FIFA top 80 have somehow made the cut — while Italy stayed home.
The teams that can actually win it
Argentina are the reigning champions and ranked second. Lionel Scaloni has taken a measured view: "The pitch will decide what it has to say." Calm. Philosophical. Dangerous. Spain's injury problems — Fermín López out, Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal both half-fit — have shaken their title credentials, yet a midfield of Pedri, Rodri and Fabián Ruiz is the kind of problem most coaches would take.
England come in at four with a genuine case for the first time in decades. Thomas Tuchel carries a Sir Alf Ramsey energy — a tactician willing to drop the biggest names for the team's shape, openly targeting the trophy. This is England's most credible World Cup tilt since 1966.
Norway's ceiling depends almost entirely on Erling Haaland. That's a reductive thing to say, but it's also just true. Norway hasn't won a competitive game without a Haaland goal since October 2021. The good news: he rarely goes a game without one. At 8/1 or longer, there's value in taking them seriously.
Brazil sit seventh under Carlo Ancelotti, who acknowledged with characteristic dry wit that no foreign-born coach has ever won the World Cup, "but there is always a first time in life." Germany at six look increasingly coherent under Nagelsmann. Portugal at five have Roberto Martínez spinning numerology about sixes and Eusébio and destiny. Whether that translates to Cristiano Ronaldo lifting a trophy is another matter.
The middle ground — and the genuine dark horses
Japan's Hajime Moriyasu has quietly set winning the entire tournament as the team's goal. From a coach known for measured understatement, that's worth taking seriously rather than laughing off.
Morocco get a full 100 days with new manager Mohamed Ouahbi. Walid Regragui had 84 days before steering them to the 2022 semifinals. The maths is uncomfortable for their group-stage opponents.
Colombia have James Rodríguez — still capable of making opposition players queue for selfies — plus the pace of Luis Díaz and the bite of Jefferson Lerma. Croatia will, as always, be underestimated. They always make you regret it.
Belgium's golden generation refuses to dissolve. Kevin De Bruyne is back. Romelu Lukaku spent the club season ignoring Napoli to get fit for this. Axel Witsel, somehow still immaculate at 37, is lurking. They peaked with bronze in 2018 and yet here they are again.
The teams making up the numbers
At the bottom of the pile, the expanded format has let some genuinely outclassed sides through the door. New Zealand's preparation was dominated by a social media surge around their 32-year-old right back. Haiti beat Aruba and Nicaragua to qualify. Curaçao's Dick Advocaat responded to a group draw of Germany, Ecuador and Côte d'Ivoire by laughing and calling it "an easy group." Gallows humour is a legitimate survival strategy.
The full rankings:
- 1. France
- 2. Argentina
- 3. Spain
- 4. England
- 5. Portugal
- 6. Germany
- 7. Brazil
- 8. Norway
- 9. Netherlands
- 10. Morocco
- 11. Croatia
- 12. Japan
- 13. Colombia
- 14. Switzerland
- 15. Belgium
- 16. Uruguay
- 17. Ecuador
- 18. Mexico
- 19. Austria
- 20. Türkiye
- 21. USMNT
- 22. Senegal
- 23. Paraguay
- 24. Canada
- 25. Egypt
- 26. South Korea
- 27. Sweden
- 28. Australia
- 29. Bosnia and Herzegovina
- 30. Czechia
- 31. Côte d'Ivoire
- 32. Algeria
- 33. Scotland
- 34. Tunisia
- 35. Iran
- 36. South Africa
- 37. Ghana
- 38. Panama
- 39. Uzbekistan
- 40. Qatar
- 41. Jordan
- 42. Saudi Arabia
- 43. Iraq
- 44. DR Congo
- 45. Cabo Verde
- 46. Curaçao
- 47. Haiti
- 48. New Zealand
Italy's 2006 World Cup-winning captain Fabio Cannavaro — now managing Uzbekistan, ranked 39th — put the whole expanded format in its proper context: "It is a chance for everyone." He's right. Whether everyone deserves the chance is a different argument entirely.
