Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory Prediction

Form snapshot: two different trajectories

Melbourne Victory's sample shows nine wins, seven draws and just four losses from twenty matches, with 38 scored against 20 conceded. That's a healthy goal difference and a team picking up points fairly consistently.

What could your bet return?

1

Wellington Phoenix to win

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Odds3

Potential return

£60.00

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X

Draw

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Odds3.4

Potential return

£68.00

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2

Melbourne Victory to win

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Odds2.2

Potential return

£44.00

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Potential returns include your stake. Odds may change.

Wellington Phoenix: 20 completed matches; Melbourne Victory: 20 completed matches.

Wellington Phoenix

20 matches

Win

35% 7 / 20

Draw

20% 4 / 20

Loss

45% 9 / 20

Scored

28

Conceded

40

Difference

-12

Melbourne Victory

20 matches

Win

45% 9 / 20

Draw

40% 8 / 20

Loss

15% 3 / 20

Scored

38

Conceded

19

Difference

+19

Wellington Phoenix's record over the same number of matches reads far more shakily: seven wins, four draws and nine losses, with 40 goals conceded against only 28 scored. It's worth noting both samples mix A-League games with cup fixtures, so this isn't a pure like-for-like league comparison, but the gap in direction is still clear.

Victory arrive with the stronger underlying numbers, for what a mixed-competition sample is worth.

Comparative Team Statistics: Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne Victory

Head-to-head: Victory have had the edge recently

The last three meetings have gone two to Victory and one to Phoenix. Victory won 5-1 at home in December and 3-2 away in February, while Phoenix's win came away from home in April, 1-0.

Stretch the history back further and Victory have won the majority of recorded meetings, including several one-sided scorelines. That said, many of those games are from previous seasons with different squads, so they're more context than prediction for this one.

Where the goals might come from

I. Eze is Phoenix's clear top scorer with nine goals in 25 matches, well ahead of anyone else on their list in the data we have. If Phoenix are to trouble Victory, a lot probably runs through him.

Wellington Phoenix:

Best scorers:

I. Eze - 9

Best assist providers:

T. Payne - 5

C. Piper - 4

K. Nagasawa - 4

Penalty cards:

C. Armiento x 1 x 3

M. James x 1 x 1

A. Rufer x 8

Melbourne Victory:

Best scorers:

N. Vergos - 7

Clarismario Rodrigues - 6

Mata - 5

Best assist providers:

Mata - 12

D. Genreau - 5

Penalty cards:

D. Genreau x 1 x 4

J. Davidson x 7

Victory's scoring is more spread out, with N. Vergos on seven, Clarismario Rodrigues on six, and Mata and K. Jelacic on five each. Mata also leads all players here with 12 assists, suggesting he's central to how Victory create chances rather than just finishing them.

Phoenix look more reliant on one main scorer, while Victory have several routes to goal.

What this shapes up as

Victory go in with the tidier overall form and a playmaker in Mata who's been heavily involved in their goals. Phoenix lean on Eze up front but have been leaking goals regularly across their sample, which is the bigger concern on their side.

Playing at home won't hurt Phoenix, and their head-to-head record isn't as one-sided as the raw form numbers might imply. But there's enough in Victory's favour here, from goal difference to squad depth in front of goal, to lean towards them doing the better of the two things required to win.