Southampton vs Derby Prediction

Two very different recent runs

Southampton's last 20 games read well overall, with 12 wins against just three defeats and a goal difference well in credit. Their last three matches have been quieter though, a goalless draw with Bolton, a 1-0 loss at Norwich and a tight 1-0 home win over Portsmouth.

Southampton: 20 completed matches; Derby: 20 completed matches.

Southampton

20 matches

Win

65% 13 / 20

Draw

20% 4 / 20

Loss

15% 3 / 20

Scored

38

Conceded

20

Difference

+18

Derby

20 matches

Win

15% 3 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

60% 12 / 20

Scored

20

Conceded

33

Difference

-13

Derby's sample tells the opposite story. Across their last 20 they've won only four times, and the last three results carry on that theme, a home loss to Stoke, a heavy 4-1 defeat at QPR and a 1-1 draw with Wrexham.

Southampton's underlying form is far stronger, even if their scoring has slowed lately.

Comparative Team Statistics: Southampton vs Derby

Recent meetings have been closer than you'd expect

The last two league meetings were tighter than the current gap between these sides suggests. Southampton won 2-1 at home back in April, but Derby had actually held them to a 1-1 draw the previous October.

Older meetings, including a couple of FA Cup draws and a heavier Southampton win years back, don't tell us much about where either side stands now.

Head-to-head history offers Derby a sliver of hope, even if it's dated.

The table backs up the form

Southampton sit seventh with 17 points from 11 games, built on six wins and only two defeats. Derby are down in 23rd with just six points from the same number of matches, having won only once.

That's a big points gap for this stage of the season, and it lines up with what their recent form has been showing.

Southampton's goals come from a couple of key men

C. Larin has been Southampton's main source of goals, with seven in his last eight appearances. F. Azaz has chipped in too, adding goals and four assists in the same span, so a fair chunk of their output runs through those two.

Southampton:

Best scorers:

C. Larin - 7

F. Azaz - 3

Best assist providers:

F. Azaz - 4

Léo Scienza - 2

Penalty cards:

F. Downes x 3

R. Manning x 3

Derby:

Best assist providers:

B. Clark - 2

The data we have on Derby's attacking end is thinner, with B. Clark the only player standing out, and only for assists rather than goals.