Southampton vs Bolton Prediction & Betting Tips

Recent form tells two different stories

Southampton's Championship results lately have featured some big scorelines, a 5-1 win over Millwall, a 4-1 win over Bristol City and a 3-1 win over Swansea all came inside a few weeks. They did lose away at Wrexham most recently, so it's not been flawless, but the attacking output has been consistent.

Southampton: 20 completed matches; Bolton: 20 completed matches.

Southampton

20 matches

Win

55% 11 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

20% 4 / 20

Scored

40

Conceded

25

Difference

+15

Bolton

20 matches

Win

40% 8 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

35% 7 / 20

Scored

29

Conceded

28

Difference

+1

Bolton's league form has been much choppier. They won 4-3 away at Norwich in their last outing and beat Cardiff at home before that, but sandwiched in between are a 4-0 defeat at Millwall, a 3-2 loss at Sheffield United and a home reverse to Lincoln. It's worth remembering some of the wider sample here crosses competitions and even last season's League One run-in, so it's the Championship-specific results that matter most for this fixture.

Southampton have looked steadier in their Championship matches recently, while Bolton blow hot and cold from game to game.

Comparative Team Statistics: Southampton vs Bolton

Where they sit in the table

After eight Championship games, Southampton are 13th and Bolton 15th, with both teams on 10 points. The gap shows up more in goal difference than in results though, Southampton have scored 19 and conceded 10, while Bolton have scored 11 and conceded 15.

Points are level, but the underlying numbers lean towards Southampton being the tidier side overall.

Goal threats and discipline

Cyle Larin has been Southampton's main source of goals with seven in eight appearances, and Finn Azaz has chipped in with three goals and four assists from midfield. For Bolton, Tom Gale leads the way with three goals in eight games, a more modest return by comparison.

Southampton:

Best scorers:

C. Larin - 7

F. Azaz - 3

Best assist providers:

F. Azaz - 4

Léo Scienza - 2

Penalty cards:

F. Downes x 3

R. Manning x 3

Bolton:

Best scorers:

T. Gale - 3

Penalty cards:

J. Sheehan x 1 x 1

On the disciplinary side, Southampton's Ryan Manning and Flynn Downes have each picked up three yellow cards, while Bolton's Josh Sheehan has already seen red once alongside a yellow in his eight matches.

Southampton's goal threat looks more spread out and productive than Bolton's.

Could this one be open at both ends

Southampton have been scoring freely at home, while Bolton's away defence has conceded plenty this season. Put those two patterns together and there's a reasonable chance of a game with goals in it, especially if Bolton set up to have a go rather than sit in, as they did in that 4-3 win at Norwich.

Bolton have shown they can hurt teams on the counter or in an open contest, so Southampton probably can't expect a stroll even with the better home numbers.