Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate Prediction

Recent form: River look steadier

River's last 20 matches, taken across league, cup and continental football, show seven wins, six draws and seven defeats, with 27 scored and 23 conceded. That's a mixed record on paper, but it includes some tough continental away days and a run of competitive league fixtures rather than one soft run of form.

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1

Sarmiento Junin to win

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Odds5.75

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£115.00

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Draw

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Odds3.2

Potential return

£64.00

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2

River Plate to win

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Odds1.7

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£34.00

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Sarmiento Junin: 20 completed matches; River Plate: 20 completed matches.

Sarmiento Junin

20 matches

Win

45% 9 / 20

Draw

10% 2 / 20

Loss

45% 9 / 20

Scored

25

Conceded

29

Difference

-4

River Plate

20 matches

Win

35% 7 / 20

Draw

30% 6 / 20

Loss

35% 7 / 20

Scored

27

Conceded

23

Difference

+4

Sarmiento's home sample over the same length of time reads nine wins, two draws and nine defeats, with 25 scored and 29 conceded. Nine wins is a decent return, but nine losses in the same stretch, plus a negative goal difference, points to a team that can be got at.

Sarmiento's home form swings between big results and heavy losses, rather than settling into anything consistent.

Comparative Team Statistics: Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate

History at this ground leans River's way

Looking back over the meetings on record, River have generally done well when they've travelled to Sarmiento. That includes a 7-0 win, a couple of 1-2 wins, and a 1-1 draw, with no Sarmiento win at home turning up in this particular sample.

That said, some of those results go back several years and a couple of competitions and squads have changed a fair bit since. The most recent league meeting, back in October last year, was actually a tight 0-1 away win for Sarmiento, so it hasn't all gone River's way lately either.

The pattern favours River at this venue, but the sample isn't huge and recent form matters more than old scorelines.

A clear table gap

The table snapshot available has River sitting second with 29 points from 16 games, while Sarmiento are down in 11th on 19 points from the same number of matches. That's a ten-point gap at a similar stage of the season, which lines up with the contrast in their recent form.

River's goal difference from that sample, 22 for and 12 against, is also well ahead of Sarmiento's 13 for and 20 against. It's a mid-season picture rather than a final placing, but it backs up the idea that River have been the more rounded side.

A couple of cards worth keeping an eye on

There's no fresh injury news to go on here, but the squad stats flag a couple of names. Sarmiento's J. Insaurralde and S. Salle have both picked up nine yellow cards apiece already this campaign, which suggests a physical edge to how Sarmiento play.

Sarmiento Junin:

Best assist providers:

J. Marabel - 4

Penalty cards:

J. Insaurralde x 2 x 9

S. Salle x 9

River Plate:

Penalty cards:

L. Martínez x 8

River's L. Martínez isn't far behind with eight yellows of his own across 29 appearances. None of that points to anyone missing this match, but it hints at a game that could get niggly in midfield.

How this one could play out

Put the form and table gap together and River look like the stronger side heading in, especially with a reasonable record at Sarmiento's ground to lean on. But Sarmiento's home form hasn't been one-way traffic either, with nine wins in their last 20 at home showing they can score goals when conditions suit them.

Both sides have shown they can concede too, Sarmiento especially, so there's a case for this being an open contest rather than a cagey one. River's task looks more about managing a game they should dominate for long spells than surviving a backs-to-the-wall away trip.