Portugal vs Norway Prediction & Betting Tips

Contrasting recent form

Portugal's numbers stand out defensively. Across their last ten matches they've conceded just five goals, including three separate 0-0 or 1-0 type scorelines against Wales, Colombia and the USA. Even during their World Cup run they kept things tight for the most part, with only the Uzbekistan game turning into a rout.

Portugal: 10 completed matches; Norway: 13 completed matches.

Portugal

10 matches

Win

60% 6 / 10

Draw

30% 3 / 10

Loss

10% 1 / 10

Scored

15

Conceded

5

Difference

+10

Norway

13 matches

Win

53.8% 7 / 13

Draw

23.1% 3 / 13

Loss

23.1% 3 / 13

Scored

23

Conceded

18

Difference

+5

Norway's record over their last thirteen games tells a different story. They've scored 23 and conceded 18, which points to games going both ways rather than settling into a pattern. Heavy defeats to France, Iraq and Brazil sit alongside wins over Senegal, Sweden and, most recently, Denmark.

Portugal's defensive discipline looks like the more reliable trait heading into this one, while Norway's games have tended to be less predictable.

Comparative Team Statistics: Portugal vs Norway

Key men in the final third

Nuno Mendes has been Portugal's standout creator, with five assists in nine appearances, and Vitinha and Bruno Fernandes have also chipped in from midfield. Rúben Dias has picked up three yellow cards in seven matches, which isn't a suspension risk on its own but is worth keeping an eye on given how disciplined Portugal have otherwise been at the back.

Portugal:

Best assist providers:

Nuno Mendes - 1

Norway:

Best scorers:

E. Haaland - 2

Best assist providers:

M. Ødegaard - 2

A. Nusa - 1

Penalty cards:

D. Møller Wolfe x 1 x 1

For Norway, Alexander Sørloth is the main creative reference point with three assists in six games, though the sample is a fairly small one to lean on too heavily.

How the game might unfold

Given Portugal's recent habit of winning by a single goal or keeping clean sheets, this doesn't look like a fixture built for a high-scoring afternoon. Norway's underlying numbers suggest they can be got at defensively, having shipped four goals on three separate occasions this year against strong opposition.

That said, Norway have shown they can score too, and their win over Denmark suggests they arrived at this international break with some confidence. If they can keep things tighter than they have against the likes of France or Iraq, they're capable of making this competitive.