Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction

Recent form

Newcastle's sample mixes A-League games with Asian Champions League Elite and Australia Cup fixtures, so it's not a pure domestic picture. Across those 20 matches they've won 9, drawn 6 and lost 5, scoring 39 and conceding 33 - comfortably more goals than clean sheets.

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1

Newcastle Jets to win

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Draw

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2

Wellington Phoenix to win

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Odds3.25

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Potential returns include your stake. Odds may change.

Newcastle Jets: 20 completed matches; Wellington Phoenix: 20 completed matches.

Newcastle Jets

20 matches

Win

40% 8 / 20

Draw

35% 7 / 20

Loss

25% 5 / 20

Scored

38

Conceded

33

Difference

+5

Wellington Phoenix

20 matches

Win

40% 8 / 20

Draw

20% 4 / 20

Loss

40% 8 / 20

Scored

29

Conceded

38

Difference

-9

Wellington's away sample is all A-League and reads 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses, with 29 scored and 38 conceded. That's more losses than wins on the road, and their defensive record away from home has been leaky too.

Both teams' recent numbers lean towards goals at both ends rather than control.

Comparative Team Statistics: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix

Head-to-head

Going back to 2018, these two have met 20 times and it's about as even as it gets: 9 wins apiece and 2 draws. That stretch covers a lot of different squads, so it's more a curiosity than a guide to current form.

What stands out is the most recent pair of meetings, both won by Newcastle - a 4-1 at home in January and a 3-1 away win in December. Most of the historical meetings have produced three or more goals in total too.

Early table picture

The standings here only cover one match played by each side so far in this run, so it's a snapshot rather than a full league table. Wellington sit second after a win, Newcastle fifth after a draw.

It's too early to read much into positions from a single game each, but it does suggest Wellington have started with more confidence than Newcastle so far.

Players and fitness

Newcastle's goals have come from a few sources, with E. Adams on 10 and C. Taylor on 9 the standouts, while L. Rose and X. Bertoncello have also chipped in regularly. D. Wilmering leads the assist charts for Newcastle with 9, suggesting a fairly reliable creative outlet.

Newcastle Jets:

Best scorers:

E. Adams - 10

C. Taylor - 9

L. Rose - 8

Best assist providers:

D. Wilmering - 9

E. Adams - 4

Penalty cards:

M. Cooper x 1 x 2

Injury list:

C. Bracco

A. Nunes

Wellington Phoenix:

Best scorers:

I. Eze - 9

Best assist providers:

T. Payne - 5

C. Piper - 4

K. Nagasawa - 4

Penalty cards:

C. Armiento x 1 x 3

M. James x 1 x 1

A. Rufer x 8

Wellington's main scoring threat is I. Eze with 9 goals, and their assists are more spread out between T. Payne, C. Piper and K. Nagasawa. Newcastle do have two names flagged as questionable in C. Bracco and A. Nunes, though that doesn't confirm either will miss out.

Goals look the common thread

Put the form and history together and goals keep popping up as the theme. Newcastle's home sample and Wellington's away sample both show more goals for and against than clean, tight scorelines, and the head-to-head record backs that up with plenty of three-plus goal matches, including the last two meetings.

The caveat is that Newcastle's numbers are boosted by some high-scoring Asian Champions League results, which isn't quite the same test as a domestic derby. Still, the overall pattern across all the evidence points the same way.