Newcastle vs Arsenal Prediction

Form guide: two very different runs

Arsenal's recent sample reads well: 14 wins from 20 matches across competitions, with 37 goals scored against 19 conceded. That said, the run hasn't been spotless, with a draw against Bayern München and a league defeat at Nottingham Forest among the more recent results.

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1

Newcastle to win

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Draw

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Arsenal to win

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Newcastle: 20 completed matches; Arsenal: 20 completed matches.

Newcastle

20 matches

Win

40% 8 / 20

Draw

20% 4 / 20

Loss

40% 8 / 20

Scored

30

Conceded

34

Difference

-4

Arsenal

20 matches

Win

65% 13 / 20

Draw

20% 4 / 20

Loss

15% 3 / 20

Scored

38

Conceded

20

Difference

+18

Newcastle's record over the same number of games is much more even, with 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses, and goals roughly balanced at 31 for and 33 against. A home loss to Aston Villa and a league defeat at Tottenham sit among their last few outings, suggesting consistency has been an issue.

Arsenal's numbers stand out, but their away form hasn't been flawless, and Newcastle's inconsistency cuts both ways.

Comparative Team Statistics: Newcastle vs Arsenal

Newcastle have had their moments at St James' Park

Arsenal's overall head-to-head record against Newcastle across the last several seasons is strong, with plenty of wins across different competitions. But look specifically at games played at Newcastle's home ground and the picture softens a bit.

Newcastle have beaten Arsenal there in a League Cup tie in February 2025, in the league in November 2024, and again in November 2023. Arsenal did win the most recent league visit in September 2025, so it's not a one-way trend, but this fixture has been tighter at this venue than Arsenal's overall record against Newcastle might suggest.

St James' Park has proven a tougher away day for Arsenal than most of their fixtures elsewhere.

A clear gap in the table

Arsenal currently sit second with 18 points from seven games, while Newcastle are down in 11th on 8 points from the same number of matches. The goal difference tells a similar story, with Arsenal conceding just 5 compared to Newcastle's 14.

Newcastle's defensive numbers this season have been shaky, which is worth bearing in mind against a team as sharp in front of goal as Arsenal.

Players to watch

Bukayo Saka has been Arsenal's standout in recent matches, with three goals in his last five appearances, while Declan Rice and Riccardo Calafiori have both chipped in with assists from midfield and defence.

Newcastle:

Best scorers:

J. Willock - 2

Best assist providers:

H. Barnes - 2

Penalty cards:

J. Murphy x 3

Y. Wissa x 2

Arsenal:

Best scorers:

B. Saka - 3

Best assist providers:

D. Rice - 2

R. Calafiori - 2

Penalty cards:

C. Tzolis x 2

For Newcastle, Joe Willock has two goals in his last five games and Harvey Barnes has provided two assists in that spell. On the disciplinary side, Jacob Murphy and Yankuba Wissa have picked up yellow cards fairly regularly, while Arsenal's Christos Tzolis has also been booked twice recently.