MVV vs Excelsior Prediction & Betting Tips

Two different levels, two different runs of form

Excelsior's numbers from their last 20 matches look solid on the surface, with 11 wins, 5 draws and just 4 losses, and 49 goals scored along the way. That's a team holding its own in the Eredivisie, drawing with Ajax and beating Cambuur 4-0 away from home. There have been slip-ups too, including a 1-2 home defeat to Utrecht and some heavy losses in pre-season friendlies.

MVV: 20 completed matches; Excelsior: 20 completed matches.

MVV

20 matches

Win

30% 6 / 20

Draw

35% 7 / 20

Loss

35% 7 / 20

Scored

23

Conceded

34

Difference

-11

Excelsior

20 matches

Win

55% 11 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

20% 4 / 20

Scored

49

Conceded

28

Difference

+21

MVV's season in the Eerste Divisie has been far more mixed. Six wins, seven draws and seven losses from 20 games tells its own story, with more goals conceded than scored. They beat Helmond Sport 2-0 most recently, but that followed a 1-6 hammering away at Waalwijk and a 0-4 home defeat to Almere City. Form at MVV has genuinely swung both ways.

Excelsior's level of performance in a higher division makes them the more battle-tested side coming into this.

Excelsior have had the better of this fixture historically

These two have crossed paths ten times since 2019, mostly in the Eerste Divisie when both clubs were in the same division. Excelsior have won the majority of those meetings, including a 5-1 win in a previous KNVB Beker tie back in 2022.

The last two league meetings both went Excelsior's way too, a 3-2 home win in October 2024 followed by a 2-1 away win in April 2025. Outright MVV wins in this fixture have been rare across the recorded meetings.

History leans towards Excelsior, though these results span several years and different circumstances for both clubs.

How the cup context could shape things

This is a knockout tie between sides from different divisions, and that always adds a bit of unpredictability. MVV get a home draw and a raised occasion, which can lift a mid-table Eerste Divisie side for one night. Excelsior's stronger recent form and their record in this exact fixture count for something, but cup games don't always follow the league script.

With MVV's home form patchy this season and their defence leaking goals in places, they'll need a big performance rather than a repeat of their league struggles. Excelsior have shown in this fixture before that they can turn up and win comfortably, as that previous cup meeting demonstrated.