Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction

Form snapshot: control versus chaos

Liverpool's last 20 matches across all competitions read nine wins, six draws and five losses, with 34 scored and 28 conceded. That's a fairly balanced record, and recent results like the 3-1 League Cup win over Tottenham and a battling 2-1 Champions League win over Atletico Madrid suggest they're capable of grinding out results as well as winning well.

Liverpool: 20 completed matches; Chelsea: 20 completed matches.

Liverpool

20 matches

Win

45% 9 / 20

Draw

30% 6 / 20

Loss

25% 5 / 20

Scored

34

Conceded

28

Difference

+6

Chelsea

20 matches

Win

45% 9 / 20

Draw

15% 3 / 20

Loss

40% 8 / 20

Scored

40

Conceded

37

Difference

+3

Chelsea's equivalent sample is nine wins, three draws and eight losses, but with 40 scored and 37 conceded. That's a lot more goals at both ends. They've lost 3-0 at Brentford and drawn 2-2 with Hull most recently, but also put six past Leeds and four past Brighton earlier in the run. It's a stop-start pattern rather than a settled one.

Both sides have been involved in goals fairly often lately, just for different reasons.

Comparative Team Statistics: Liverpool vs Chelsea

Head-to-head: usually close

The recent meetings between these two have mostly been tight. Their last Premier League game finished 1-1, and before that Chelsea won 2-1 and 3-1 in consecutive fixtures, with Liverpool winning 2-1 the time before that. Further back there's a string of 0-0s and 1-1s mixed in among the odd heavier scoreline.

This history stretches back several seasons and covers different competitions, so it's not a guide to current form. But it does show these two have rarely been far apart on the scoreboard when they've met.

Chelsea's attacking end

The player data on hand points to Chelsea rather than Liverpool. D. Welbeck has three goals from two matches, and M. Rogers has three assists from two matches, both featuring prominently in that small sample. It suggests Chelsea have had a productive attacking patch even while results elsewhere have been uneven.

Chelsea:

Best scorers:

D. Welbeck - 3

Best assist providers:

M. Rogers - 3

That's only a partial picture of the squad, not a full ranking or a confirmed team sheet for this fixture, which is still a month away from when this form was recorded. Still, it fits with a Chelsea side that can score goals when things click.

How this one could play out

Liverpool are the quoted favourites here, and their recent form backs that up to an extent, with a tighter goal difference than Chelsea's over the last 20 games. But Chelsea's sample shows they're rarely involved in quiet, low-scoring matches, and Liverpool's own games have had plenty of goals too, including a run of 4-2s, 3-2s and similarly open scorelines.

Given it's a League Cup tie, and a month out from when this form snapshot was taken, there's some uncertainty over how each side will approach it. What the evidence does support is that goals have been a regular feature for both teams recently, whoever's come out on top.