France vs Belgium Prediction & Betting Tips

Recent form: contrasting trajectories

France have won nine of their last twelve matches, scoring 29 and conceding 15 along the way. The two most recent results buck that trend though, a 0-2 loss to Spain followed by a wild 4-6 defeat to England, both high-scoring affairs that show the defence has had its shaky moments.

France: 13 completed matches; Belgium: 11 completed matches.

France

13 matches

Win

76.9% 10 / 13

Draw

0% 0 / 13

Loss

23.1% 3 / 13

Scored

30

Conceded

15

Difference

+15

Belgium

11 matches

Win

63.6% 7 / 11

Draw

27.3% 3 / 11

Loss

9.1% 1 / 11

Scored

29

Conceded

10

Difference

+19

Belgium's record over their last ten is steadier: six wins, three draws and just a single defeat, that coming away to Spain. They've also conceded far less than France in this sample, just ten goals against in ten games, while still scoring freely at the other end with 27 for.

Belgium's recent form looks the more consistent of the two, even if France have the bigger raw win tally.

Comparative Team Statistics: France vs Belgium

Head-to-head: France have had the upper hand

Looking back over the last five meetings between these two, France have won every single one, including a Euro 2024 group game and the 2018 World Cup semi-final. Even the closer ones, like the 2021 Nations League tie which finished 3-2, went France's way.

That's a long run of head-to-head dominance, though it stretches back several years and doesn't tell us much about the current squads or how either side is set up right now.

History favours France heavily, but it's not current form and shouldn't be leaned on too hard.

Team news: Digne's influence and a couple of yellow cards to watch

The player data we have points to Left-back L. Digne as France's most productive creator lately, with three assists in six appearances. He's also picked up three yellow cards in that span, matched by R. Kolo Muani over eight games, so there's a bit of a discipline theme worth keeping an eye on for France.

France:

Best scorers:

Kylian Mbappé - 1

Best assist providers:

M. Olise - 1

Penalty cards:

E. Lepaul x 1

Belgium:

Best scorers:

D. Lukebakio - 1

Best assist providers:

K. De Bruyne - 1

C. De Ketelaere - 1

Penalty cards:

R. Lukaku x 1

M. Fernandez-Pardo x 1

R. Lavia x 1

There's no equivalent player detail available for Belgium here, so we can't say much about their side specifically.

How this one might play out

Both sides have shown they can score goals in bunches this year, and neither defence has been watertight throughout. France's last two results in particular suggest they can be got at, while Belgium have generally kept things tighter at the back apart from that one loss to Spain.

Given France's recent dip and Belgium's more settled form, plus a head-to-head record that heavily favours the hosts, this has the makings of a tighter, more competitive game than the history alone might suggest.