Exeter City vs Crawley Town Prediction

Two very different recent runs

Looking at Exeter's last twenty matches across all competitions, they've won seven, drawn seven and lost six, with twenty scored and sixteen conceded. That's a fairly balanced record, leaning slightly positive.

Exeter City: 20 completed matches; Crawley Town: 20 completed matches.

Exeter City

20 matches

Win

35% 7 / 20

Draw

35% 7 / 20

Loss

30% 6 / 20

Scored

20

Conceded

16

Difference

+4

Crawley Town

20 matches

Win

20% 4 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

55% 11 / 20

Scored

24

Conceded

33

Difference

-9

Crawley's equivalent sample is much rougher: four wins, five draws and eleven defeats, with twenty-four scored but thirty-three let in. Conceding at that rate is the bigger concern for them.

Crawley's defensive numbers stand out as the clearer trend here, more so than any attacking edge for Exeter.

Comparative Team Statistics: Exeter City vs Crawley Town

A long rivalry with goals on both sides

The head-to-head stretches back over a decade and covers League Two, League One and cup competitions. The most recent two meetings were a 3-1 Crawley win in League One and, before that, a wild 4-4 draw in the same division.

Across the full set of meetings, low-scoring stalemates are rare. Games between these two tend to have goals in them, whichever side ends up winning.

The table backs up the form gap

Exeter currently sit 16th with 13 points from 11 games, having scored and conceded six each. It's a mid-table position, nothing flashy but reasonably solid.

Crawley are down in 24th with just five points from nine matches, having shipped seventeen goals already. That's a significant gap between the two sides on paper.

Crawley's discipline has been shaky

The player data we have is limited to card counts, and it's all about Crawley. Two of their players, Farquharson and Arthurs, have each picked up four yellow cards in just seven matches.

Crawley Town:

Penalty cards:

M. Ebiowei x 1 x 1

K. Gordon x 1

P. Farquharson x 4

Two others, Ebiowei and Gordon, have each been sent off within a sample of only four matches apiece. That's a small sample, and it doesn't confirm who'll even be involved by the time this one comes round in late November, but it does point to a team that's picked up more cards than most.

If that disciplinary pattern continues, Crawley could find themselves playing with ten men again before this fixture arrives.

What shape might this game take

Put the pieces together and you get a picture of an open game. Exeter's defence has been tighter than Crawley's leaky one, and the head-to-head history leans toward goals at both ends rather than a shutout.

Crawley's away form and card trouble suggest they could be stretched if Exeter start well, but this fixture is still a month out from when this form was recorded, so plenty could shift before kickoff.