Ethiopia host Senegal in the Africa Cup of Nations Qualifiers. Senegal have been winning consistently in this group, while Ethiopia have found the going a lot tougher.
There's a clear gap in results between these two sides already this campaign. What's less clear is how that translates into Ethiopia's approach at home, given a mixed run of recent form that includes some heavy defeats but also a couple of tidier results.
Analysis updated .
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Contrasting recent pictures
Senegal's recent fixture list is a mixed bag of competitions, including World Cup group games, AFCON matches and friendlies, so it's not a clean run of qualifiers. Even so, the overall sample shows plenty of goals at both ends, with some big wins mixed among defeats to stronger opposition like France, Belgium and Brazil.
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Ethiopia: 8 completed matches; Senegal: 20 completed matches.
Ethiopia
- Win
- 25% 2 / 8
- Draw
- 25% 2 / 8
- Loss
- 50% 4 / 8
- Scored
- 5
- Conceded
- 13
- Difference
- -8
Senegal
- Win
- 45% 9 / 20
- Draw
- 15% 3 / 20
- Loss
- 40% 8 / 20
- Scored
- 40
- Conceded
- 23
- Difference
- +17
| League | Home | Away | Date | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendlies | Ethiopia | Malawi | 09.06.2026 | 1-1 |
| Friendlies | Ethiopia | Malawi | 06.06.2026 | 1-0 |
| Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | Congo DR | Ethiopia | 19.11.2024 | 1-2 |
| Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | Ethiopia | Tanzania | 16.11.2024 | 0-2 |
| Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | Ethiopia | Guinea | 15.10.2024 | 0-3 |
| Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | Guinea | Ethiopia | 12.10.2024 | 4-1 |
| Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | Ethiopia | Congo DR | 09.09.2024 | 0-2 |
| Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification | Tanzania | Ethiopia | 04.09.2024 | 0-0 |
| League | Home | Away | Date | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup | Belgium | Senegal | 01.07.2026 | 3-2 |
| World Cup | Senegal | Iraq | 26.06.2026 | 5-0 |
| World Cup | Norway | Senegal | 23.06.2026 | 3-2 |
| World Cup | France | Senegal | 16.06.2026 | 3-1 |
| Friendlies | Saudi Arabia | Senegal | 10.06.2026 | 0-0 |
| Friendlies | USA | Senegal | 31.05.2026 | 3-2 |
| Friendlies | Senegal | Gambia | 31.03.2026 | 3-1 |
| Friendlies | Senegal | Peru | 28.03.2026 | 2-0 |
| Africa Cup of Nations | Senegal | Egypt | 14.01.2026 | 1-0 |
| Africa Cup of Nations | Mali | Senegal | 09.01.2026 | 0-1 |
Ethiopia's home sample leans older, built mostly around 2024 AFCON qualifying matches where they lost heavily to sides like Guinea and Tanzania. Their two most recent games, both at home to Malawi in June 2026, were tighter, a 1-1 draw and a narrow 1-0 win, which hints at some improvement without erasing the wider defensive problems.
Ethiopia's very recent form is a touch better than their qualifying numbers suggest, but the gap in class still looks significant.
Comparative Team Statistics: Ethiopia vs Senegal
A one-sided group table so far
Senegal sit top of this qualifying group after five matches, with four wins and a draw and just one goal conceded all campaign. Ethiopia are down in fourth place from the same number of games, with only a single point and a goal difference of minus ten.
| № | Team | Played | Win | Draw | Loss | GF/GA | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group H | |||||||
| 1 | Congo DR | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 6/1 | 12 |
| 2 | Guinea | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9/4 | 9 |
| 3 | Tanzania | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4/4 | 7 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1/11 | 1 |
| Group L | |||||||
| 1 | Senegal | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8/1 | 13 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10/7 | 10 |
| 3 | Malawi | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6/11 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4/9 | 4 |
That gap in the table lines up with everything else in the evidence. Senegal have barely been troubled defensively in these qualifiers, while Ethiopia have shipped goals in bunches.
The table alone points to a heavily one-sided fixture.
How this one could play out
Given Senegal's defensive record in this group and Ethiopia's struggles to score, it's easy to see Senegal controlling most of the game. Ethiopia's slightly firmer home form against Malawi suggests they won't simply be steamrollered, even if their qualifying goal difference paints a bleak picture.
The main uncertainty is whether Ethiopia can keep things tight for long periods, as they did in that 1-1 draw, or whether Senegal's attacking quality proves too much over ninety minutes.
Match odds and squad lists
Squad and player details
| Name | Country | Age | Position | Height | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yared Bayeh Belay | Ethiopia | 31 | Defender | 182 | n/a |
| R. Yusef | Ethiopia | 25 | Defender | n/a | n/a |
| S. Dagnachew | Ethiopia | 29 | Midfielder | n/a | n/a |
| F. Fereja | Ethiopia | 26 | Midfielder | n/a | n/a |
| A. Gidey | Ethiopia | 30 | Attacker | n/a | n/a |
| S. Hamid | Ethiopia | 28 | Defender | 177 | n/a |
| A. Yalew | Ethiopia | 30 | Attacker | n/a | n/a |
| C. Gugsa | Ethiopia | 27 | Attacker | n/a | n/a |
| H. Adugna | Ethiopia | 30 | Defender | n/a | n/a |
| H. Tadesse | Ethiopia | 25 | Attacker | n/a | n/a |
| Frezer Kasa | Ethiopia | 28 | Defender | n/a | n/a |
| N. Tadesse | Ethiopia | 31 | Midfielder | n/a | n/a |
| B. Waza | Ethiopia | 26 | Midfielder | n/a | n/a |
| A. Terfa | Ethiopia | 23 | Defender | n/a | n/a |
| K. Jima | Ethiopia | 26 | Attacker | n/a | n/a |
| F. Jemal | Ethiopia | 28 | Defender | n/a | n/a |
| F. Gebre | Ethiopia | 25 | Attacker | n/a | n/a |
| Y. Kumsa | Ethiopia | 28 | Midfielder | n/a | n/a |
| R. James | Ethiopia | 25 | Defender | n/a | n/a |
| A. Beyene | Ethiopia | 20 | Attacker | n/a | n/a |
| Name | Country | Age | Position | Height | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Diatta | Senegal | 27 | Defender | 175 | 68 |
| S. Mané | Senegal | 34 | Midfielder | 175 | 69 |
| K. Koulibaly | Senegal | 35 | Defender | 195 | 89 |
| I. Sarr | Senegal | 28 | Midfielder | 185 | 76 |
| É. Mendy | Senegal | 34 | Goalkeeper | 194 | 86 |
| I. Gueye | Senegal | 37 | Midfielder | 174 | 66 |
| A. Seck | Senegal | 34 | Defender | 192 | 95 |
| C. Ndiaye | Senegal | 30 | Attacker | 190 | 83 |
| I. Ndiaye | Senegal | 26 | Attacker | 180 | 70 |
| H. Diallo | Senegal | 31 | Attacker | 186 | 79 |
| Y. Diouf | France | 26 | Goalkeeper | 188 | 74 |
| P. Gueye | Senegal | 27 | Midfielder | 189 | 79 |
| B. Dia | Senegal | 29 | Attacker | 180 | 75 |
| M. Niakhaté | Senegal | 30 | Defender | 190 | 82 |
| P. Ciss | Senegal | 32 | Midfielder | 186 | 71 |
| M. Diaw | Senegal | 33 | Goalkeeper | 197 | 95 |
| I. Jakobs | Senegal | 27 | Defender | 184 | 75 |
| M. Mbow | Senegal | 26 | Defender | 192 | 74 |
| P. Sarr | Senegal | 24 | Midfielder | 185 | 70 |
| M. Sarr | France | 21 | Defender | 194 | 77 |
Everything in the evidence points one way, with Senegal well clear at the top of the group and Ethiopia short on goals and points. That's a useful guide to expected control in the game, even if it doesn't tell us the final scoreline.
Without a market to assess, there's no selection to make here. The sensible approach is to note the clear gap in quality and leave it at that, rather than force a pick where none is offered.
Match result odds
Who will win?
