Buriram United vs Kashima Prediction

Two very different runs of form

Kashima's been on a tear. Fifteen wins from twenty games across J1 League, Emperor Cup and continental football, with 42 goals scored and only 13 conceded. There's a 7-1 thrashing of Newcastle Jets in there and a 5-0 win over Vegalta Sendai too, so the goals have come freely.

Buriram United: 20 completed matches; Kashima: 20 completed matches.

Buriram United

20 matches

Win

55% 11 / 20

Draw

20% 4 / 20

Loss

25% 5 / 20

Scored

34

Conceded

21

Difference

+13

Kashima

20 matches

Win

75% 15 / 20

Draw

15% 3 / 20

Loss

10% 2 / 20

Scored

41

Conceded

13

Difference

+28

Buriram's record over the same sort of sample is choppier. Eleven wins from twenty, but five losses and some rough nights, including a 0-3 defeat to BG Pathum United and a 1-3 loss at home to Johor Darul Takzim. They've conceded 22 goals in that run, noticeably more than Kashima have let in.

Kashima are arriving in much better rhythm, though it's worth remembering these are different competitions and not a direct head-to-head measure of strength.

Comparative Team Statistics: Buriram United vs Kashima

Early group picture

The table we've got only shows one match played by each side in this group stage. Kashima sit top after winning that opener 7-1, which explains the big goal difference and maximum points. Buriram are down in ninth after a 1-1 draw.

It's a tiny sample, just one game each, so this isn't a reliable guide to where either side will finish. But it does line up with the pattern we're seeing in their broader form.

Attacking names to watch

The player data we've got leans heavily towards Kashima's attack. Čavrić, Tokuda and Tagawa have all been on the scoresheet, with Tokuda also chipping in an assist alongside Matsumura, Hayashu and Yan Matheus.

Buriram United:

Best assist providers:

Darlan - 1

Penalty cards:

K. Dougall x 1 x 1

Kashima:

Best scorers:

A. Čavrić - 3

H. Tokuda - 2

K. Tagawa - 1

Best assist providers:

H. Tokuda - 1

Y. Matsumura - 1

H. Hayashu - 1

On Buriram's side, Darlan shows up with an assist, and Dougall has picked up a yellow and a red card in the sample we've seen. That's not confirmation of a suspension for this fixture, just a flag worth keeping in mind as the team news develops.

What might shape this one

Kashima's numbers point to a side scoring heavily and defending tightly, 42 for and just 13 against across their sample. Buriram have scored a similar amount, 35, but conceded nearly twice as many as Kashima have.

That gap suggests goals could be on the cards if Kashima's attacking players turn up in the same mood. Buriram have shown they can grind out draws against decent opposition too, so it won't necessarily be straightforward for the visitors.