Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG Prediction & Betting Tips

Form guide

Paranaense's last five outings sum up their season so far: heavy draws at Coritiba and at home to Fluminense, wins over Bahia and Cruzeiro, then a defeat away at Botafogo. Goals have flowed at both ends, and their back line has looked open more than once.

What could your bet return?

1

Atletico Paranaense to win

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Odds2.05

Potential return

£41.00

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X

Draw

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Odds3.25

Potential return

£65.00

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2

Atletico-MG to win

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Odds3.6

Potential return

£72.00

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Potential returns include your stake. Odds may change.

Atletico Paranaense: 20 completed matches; Atletico-MG: 20 completed matches.

Atletico Paranaense

20 matches

Win

40% 8 / 20

Draw

35% 7 / 20

Loss

25% 5 / 20

Scored

26

Conceded

24

Difference

+2

Atletico-MG

20 matches

Win

50% 10 / 20

Draw

35% 7 / 20

Loss

15% 3 / 20

Scored

27

Conceded

18

Difference

+9

Atletico-MG have been the more consistent side lately. They've won away at Sao Paulo and Santos, drawn with Fluminense, and picked up continental results too, with only a handful of defeats across their last twenty matches in all competitions.

On recent matches alone, Atletico-MG's form reads a touch stronger than Paranaense's, including away from home.

Comparative Team Statistics: Atletico Paranaense vs Atletico-MG

Head-to-head record

These two have met regularly down the years, with meetings going back to 2017. Looking just at the last five, Atletico-MG have won three, Paranaense have won one, and one finished level.

The most recent match played at Paranaense's own ground actually went the home side's way, so the head-to-head picture doesn't lean cleanly on one team once you factor in venue.

Where they sit in the table

Paranaense currently sit third with 49 points from 28 games, while Atletico-MG are seventh on 40 points from 27 matches. That's a reasonable cushion in the table for the home side.

The gap in the table gives Paranaense more to protect at home, even if their recent form has wobbled a bit.

Team news and key men

Paranaense's main threat is K. Viveros, who has scored 18 goals in 26 appearances this season, clearly their leading source of goals. Renan Peixoto and Renan Viana are both listed as questionable, which is worth noting without assuming either will definitely miss out.

Atletico Paranaense:

Best scorers:

K. Viveros - 18

Best assist providers:

João Cruz - 5

L. Esquivel - 5

G. Benavídez - 5

Penalty cards:

B. Zapelli x 1 x 4

Arthur Dias x 7

Injury list:

Renan Peixoto

Renan Viana

Atletico-MG:

Penalty cards:

Renan Lodi x 1 x 4

Ruan Tressoldi x 7

Injury list:

Junior Santos

For Atletico-MG, Junior Santos is also listed as questionable. Both squads have players who pick up bookings fairly often too, with Arthur Dias and Ruan Tressoldi among the more cautioned names, so a niggly game wouldn't be a surprise.

How the game could play out

Put the table gap next to the form guide and you get a genuinely mixed picture. Paranaense hold the higher league position, but their recent matches have leaked goals at home more than once. Atletico-MG arrive in better recent form and with a tighter defensive record over their last twenty games.

The head-to-head history doesn't settle it either, given how the results have swung back and forth depending on venue. It points to a contest that could go several ways rather than a clear home banker.