Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima Prediction & Betting Tips

Form guide: Nacional flying, Tolima inconsistent

Over their last 20 matches across competitions, Atletico Nacional have won 14, drawn just once and lost five, scoring 40 goals along the way while conceding 18. That's a strong return, and it includes a run of eight wins from ten between early August and mid-September, though a 1-1 home draw with Millonarios and a loss away at Llaneros show they're not unbeatable right now.

Atletico Nacional: 20 completed matches; Deportes Tolima: 20 completed matches.

Atletico Nacional

20 matches

Win

70% 14 / 20

Draw

10% 2 / 20

Loss

20% 4 / 20

Scored

41

Conceded

18

Difference

+23

Deportes Tolima

20 matches

Win

40% 8 / 20

Draw

15% 3 / 20

Loss

45% 9 / 20

Scored

21

Conceded

25

Difference

-4

Tolima's record over the same length of sample is far patchier: 8 wins, 9 losses and 3 draws from 20, with 21 scored and 25 conceded. Their last five results have brought just one win, two draws and two defeats, including back-to-back league losses to Once Caldas and Santa Fe.

The gap in current form is wide, even if Tolima have shown they can still nick results here and there.

Comparative Team Statistics: Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima

Head-to-head: tighter than the table suggests

The last five league meetings have split three wins for Nacional, one for Tolima and a draw. Nacional's most recent away win at Tolima in May was a narrow 1-0, and the March meeting before that went the other way, with Tolima winning 1-0 at home.

Go back a little further and you find a wild 4-3 win for Nacional in March 2025, plus a goalless draw between the sides in August of that year. It's a fixture that doesn't always follow logic.

Recent head-to-head results suggest tight margins rather than one-sided wins, whatever the current form gap says.

Standings: Nacional well clear, but there's a second table too

In the wider table, Atletico Nacional sit top with 40 points from 19 games, while Tolima are down in sixth with 31 points from the same number of matches. That's a solid gap built on goal difference as much as points, Nacional have scored 35 and conceded just 15.

There's also a shorter, separate standings sample where Nacional sit fourth with 18 points from eight games and Tolima seventh with 17 from ten. It looks like a different stage of the campaign, so it's worth treating as a secondary picture rather than the full story.

Key men: Morelos still leading the way

Nacional's goals have come from more than one source. A. Morelos has 14 in 30 appearances, J. Rengifo has chipped in with 7 goals and 7 assists, and A. Sarmiento has added 7 goals and 6 assists too. That's a spread of goal threat rather than reliance on one man.

Atletico Nacional:

Best scorers:

A. Morelos - 14

Best assist providers:

J. Rengifo - 7

A. Morelos - 6

A. Sarmiento - 6

Penalty cards:

A. Román x 1 x 7

A. Morelos x 9

E. Cardona x 9

Deportes Tolima:

Best scorers:

L. Sandoval - 8

Penalty cards:

J. Hernández x 2

L. Sandoval x 1 x 8

For Tolima, L. Sandoval leads the way with 8 goals in 21 games, while J. Torres has 4 assists from 18 appearances. On the disciplinary side, J. Hernández has picked up two reds in 23 matches, a reminder that Tolima's back line has had its bumpy moments this season.

How the game might open up

Nacional have scored freely across their recent matches, averaging two goals a game over their last 20. Tolima's away form has brought 21 goals but also 25 conceded, suggesting their defence can be got at.

Given Nacional's attacking numbers and Tolima's leakier record on the road, goals feel like a live theme here, though Tolima have also managed a few disciplined 0-0s and 1-0 defeats along the way, showing they can dig in when needed.