Ajax vs Atalanta Prediction

Contrasting form lines heading into Amsterdam

Ajax have won 13 of their last 20 matches across all competitions, racking up 53 goals in that spell, though the sample includes some lopsided Conference League and friendly scorelines. Their most recent run has been shakier: a 1-2 defeat away to Hajduk Split plus draws with NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior, with a 5-1 win over Willem II mixed in between.

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1

Ajax to win

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Odds2.82

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£56.40

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Draw

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Odds3.54

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£70.80

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2

Atalanta to win

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Odds2.28

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Ajax: 20 completed matches; Atalanta: 20 completed matches.

Ajax

20 matches

Win

65% 13 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

10% 2 / 20

Scored

53

Conceded

25

Difference

+28

Atalanta

20 matches

Win

45% 9 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

30% 6 / 20

Scored

28

Conceded

22

Difference

+6

Atalanta's record of nine wins, five draws and six losses over the same period is more modest, and their goal difference is tighter too. They've bounced back nicely with back-to-back 3-1 wins over Pafos and Venezia after a rough September that saw them lose three league games in a row, to Juventus, Cagliari and Roma.

Ajax's attack has outscored Atalanta's by some distance, but their defence has also looked more exposed along the way.

Comparative Team Statistics: Ajax vs Atalanta

A distant Champions League history

These two have met just twice in the data we have, both in the 2020 Champions League group stage. Ajax lost 1-0 at home before drawing 2-2 away in Bergamo. That was a different era for both clubs and a different competition, so it doesn't tell us much about this Conference League meeting six years on.

Ajax's goal threats catching the eye

The player data available here covers only Ajax's attacking options, and it shows a side spreading goals around nicely. Oleksandr Gloukh and Davy Klaassen have each scored four in their last five appearances, while Tolu Arokodare has three in just three matches. Steven Berghuis and Amar Ouazane have each chipped in three assists, so the creativity isn't limited to one man either.

Ajax:

Best scorers:

O. Gloukh - 4

D. Klaassen - 4

T. Arokodare - 3

Best assist providers:

S. Berghuis - 3

A. Ouazane - 3

M. Godts - 2

There's no equivalent breakdown for Atalanta here, so we can't say whether their goal threat is similarly spread out or leans on one or two key players.

Goals look the likeliest theme

Ajax's matches have produced goals at both ends all year, whether it's a 5-3 shootout with Sion or a 1-3 home defeat to PSV. Atalanta have been involved in fewer high-scoring games recently, but they've still found the net in most of their last ten matches, including those two 3-1 wins.

Put the two together and this doesn't look like a fixture built for a quiet night. Ajax's defence has shipped goals even against weaker continental opposition, and Atalanta have shown they can score against most types of opponent this term.