"Sports are about cycles but this one in soccer has gone on for too long." Italy Sports Minister Andrea Abodi isn't wrong. The four-time world champions are staring down the barrel of a third consecutive World Cup absence — a run of failure that would stretch to 16 years without a single match at soccer's biggest stage.
The Azzurri need to beat Northern Ireland in Bergamo next Thursday, then win away against either Wales or Bosnia and Herzegovina. Winnable? On paper. But Italy have made a habit of losing on paper.
A qualifying campaign that fell apart early
It started with a 3-0 hammering at Norway — Erling Haaland's Norway — in the opening qualifier. That result cost Luciano Spalletti his job. Gennaro Gattuso came in, Italy won six straight, and it looked like the crisis had been managed. Then Norway happened again in November, Italy finished second in their group, and here we are. Playoffs. Again.
This is the same stage where Sweden knocked them out before 2018. Where North Macedonia — North Macedonia — ended their 2022 dream. The Azzurri keep arriving at this point and keep finding a way to collapse.
Ranked 69th, Northern Ireland are heavy underdogs. Their captain, Liverpool's Conor Bradley, is injured. Their manager Michael O'Neill is splitting his time with a new job at Blackburn. Italy should win this. But the last time these two sides met — a 0-0 draw in Belfast in 2021 — it dragged Italy into the 2022 playoffs that ended in catastrophe. The history here is not entirely comfortable.
The last World Cup knockout game was 2006
Let that sink in. Italy's last knockout match at a World Cup was the 2006 final — the one where Zidane headbutted Materazzi, Italy won on penalties, and lifted the trophy. Nearly two decades ago. Since then: group-stage exits in 2010 and 2014, then not even qualifying in 2018 and 2022.
Gattuso was part of that 2006 squad. So was Gianluigi Buffon, now the national team's delegation chief, who had a hand in bringing Gattuso back. Gianluca Zambrotta and Simone Perrotta are working in youth development. The federation is leaning on its last generation of winners because it doesn't have a new one ready yet.
In the absence of a proper training camp — one couldn't be arranged in the four months since Italy last played — Gattuso and Buffon did the rounds. Dinners in London, Saudi Arabia, Qatar. Team spirit over tactical preparation. Whether that's pragmatic or a warning sign depends entirely on what happens next Thursday.
Serie A's decline runs parallel to all of this. The league that once attracted the world's best now largely imports players past their peak. No Italian club has won the Champions League since Inter in 2010. Federation president Gabriele Gravina this week called out an "extreme tacticalism" in Italian football — a defensive, win-at-all-costs culture he says is stunting development at youth level.
Meanwhile, Italy is thriving everywhere else. Winter Olympics records. Jannik Sinner back on top in tennis. A rugby win over England. World titles in volleyball. Kimi Antonelli becoming a Formula One winner at 19. The country is not short of sporting identity — it's just that the sport that used to define it most has spent two decades in managed decline.
An entire generation of Italian kids has no memory of their country at a World Cup. The last one was Uruguay 2014, remembered mainly for Suarez biting Chiellini. If Italy slip up against Northern Ireland or whoever follows, the next group won't remember one either. The playoffs odds might favour the Azzurri, but so did the last two times.
