"Nobody is watching 90 out of 104 games. It's just too much." That's not a disgruntled fan on social media — that's Jonathan Wilson, one of football's most respected historians, summing up the central problem with this summer's World Cup before a ball has been kicked.
FIFA's expanded 48-team format, up from 32, stretches across nearly six weeks of football in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. More games, more teams, more revenue. The question nobody at FIFA HQ seems particularly eager to answer is: at what cost?
The group stage is the biggest loser
The traditional "group of death" — those pools where elite nations collide early and someone genuinely good goes home — is essentially extinct in this format. With 48 teams split into 12 groups of four, and the eight best third-place finishers also advancing, the jeopardy that made early World Cup football compulsory viewing has been surgically removed until the round of 16.
Clint Dempsey, the former U.S. forward, put it plainly: "It's kind of taken a little bit of the excitement and quality away from the tournament and it's almost like it doesn't start until the round of 32."
That's a long time to wait. Nearly three weeks of football before the tournament meaningfully matters to the neutral.
From a betting perspective, that structural shift matters too. Markets that would once have crackled with genuine uncertainty in the groups now carry far less edge in the early rounds — the expanded safety net deflates the drama that drives engagement.
Player welfare is not an abstract concern
Several Brazil players — Rodrygo, Éder Militão, and Estevao — are already out of the tournament through injury. Chelsea saw a 44% spike in injuries after the Club World Cup, according to global players' union FIFPRO. After this tournament, many top players will have played three consecutive summers of major competitions following Euro 2024, Copa America 2024, and last summer's expanded Club World Cup.
Jamie Carragher didn't mince words: "I think the top players get treated a little bit like cattle. If they start getting criticism for the performances at certain stages of the World Cup, I think we've got to remember how much football they've played."
He's right. When the star players who drive viewership are either absent or running on fumes, the product suffers in a way no broadcast deal can fix.
Maheta Molango, chief executive of England's Professional Footballers' Association, has been making the scarcity argument for some time — pointing to the NFL, which generates nearly $11 billion per season from media rights with teams playing just 17 regular season games. The Premier League, with its 36-game seasons and global reach, pulls in less than half that figure annually. More football does not automatically mean more value.
The feel-good stories are real — just not the whole picture
To be fair to FIFA, there is something genuinely worthwhile buried in the expansion. Curacao are the smallest nation by population ever to qualify. Haiti are back at a World Cup for the first time since 1974, with midfielder Yassin Fortune describing qualifying as "unimaginable." New Zealand called up defender Tommy Smith from Braintree Town, relegated from England's fifth tier this season.
These stories matter. The argument that qualification alone raises standards and grassroots investment in emerging nations is not baseless — it just won't be proven in a single tournament.
FIFA is projecting over $9 billion in revenue from this World Cup. Ticket prices range from $140 to $32,970 for the final, with resale listings reportedly hitting $2.3 million per ticket. Fans have called it a "monumental betrayal" on pricing, but the sell-out signals suggest demand, for now, is holding.
"Maybe FIFA gets away with it this time because it's the first expanded tournament and because ticket prices are enormous," Wilson said. "But eventually broadcasters and fans may stop caring if the tournament doesn't become interesting until the last 16."
That's the real long-term risk. Not this summer — but the one after, and the one after that.
