Wales vs Portugal Prediction

Form lines tell very different stories

Portugal's recent sample spans World Cup football, Nations League games and a few friendlies, and it reads well: nine wins, three draws and just one defeat, with 23 goals scored against only nine conceded. That's a wide mix of opposition and competitions, so it's not a pure like-for-like guide to this fixture, but the overall pattern of winning more often than not is clear.

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1

Wales to win

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Draw

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Odds5.59

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2

Portugal to win

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Odds1.28

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Wales: 9 completed matches; Portugal: 13 completed matches.

Wales

9 matches

Win

11.1% 1 / 9

Draw

22.2% 2 / 9

Loss

66.7% 6 / 9

Scored

5

Conceded

13

Difference

-8

Portugal

13 matches

Win

69.2% 9 / 13

Draw

23.1% 3 / 13

Loss

7.7% 1 / 13

Scored

23

Conceded

9

Difference

+14

Wales have had a tougher run. One win, two draws and six defeats from nine matches, with just five goals scored and thirteen conceded, points to a side short on confidence and goals right now.

Portugal's broader winning habit contrasts sharply with Wales' struggles to score or defend consistently.

Comparative Team Statistics: Wales vs Portugal

They've already met this season

These two faced each other in this same Nations League campaign just last month, and Portugal won 1-0. The only other recorded meeting goes back to Euro 2016, where Portugal won 2-0, though that's old enough to carry little weight on its own.

The recent result is the more relevant one given it's the same competition and roughly the same squads involved.

A tight 1-0 scoreline last time suggests Portugal's edge is real but not necessarily one-sided by a wide margin.

Group table backs up the form

Portugal sit top of their Nations League group with 12 points from four games, unbeaten so far. Wales are down in third with just three points from four matches and three defeats already on the board.

That gap in the table lines up with what their recent form shows elsewhere.

Portugal's attacking threat

There isn't a full squad list to go on, but Nuno Mendes has been credited with an assist in Portugal's recent matches, a small sign he's been involved going forward.

Portugal:

Best assist providers:

Nuno Mendes - 1

It's a limited snapshot rather than proof of who else is fit or starting, so it's best treated as one data point among several.