Japan vs Brazil Prediction

Two useful recent runs, different contexts

Japan's last four outings have been tidy: wins over New Zealand, Venezuela and Uruguay plus a goalless draw with Ecuador, all played on home soil in the Kirin Cup and friendly windows. Across their last 20 matches they've won 13, drawn 5 and lost just twice, scoring freely along the way.

Japan: 20 completed matches; Brazil: 20 completed matches.

Japan

20 matches

Win

65% 13 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

10% 2 / 20

Scored

41

Conceded

11

Difference

+30

Brazil

20 matches

Win

55% 11 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

20% 4 / 20

Scored

40

Conceded

21

Difference

+19

Brazil's most recent sample comes from away friendlies rather than competitive football, with a heavy win in India, a high-scoring win in Australia and a draw against the same opponents. Zoom out across their last 20 games and it's 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses, including some bumpy moments at the World Cup like the loss to Scotland and the scrappy draw with Morocco.

Japan's home form looks the stronger of the two samples, though the level of opposition varies a fair bit on both sides.

Comparative Team Statistics: Japan vs Brazil

Head-to-head has gone either way recently

Brazil won the most recent meeting 2-1 at this summer's World Cup, but Japan have actually won two of the last four meetings between these sides, including a 3-2 friendly win on home soil just last October and a 1-0 win back in 2022.

It's not a huge sample, and friendlies and tournament games don't always tell the same story, but it does suggest Japan aren't just making up the numbers against this opponent.

Playmakers worth keeping an eye on

Keito Nakamura has chipped in with two assists in his last four appearances for Japan, matching Raphinha's output in the same number of games for Brazil. Both look like the players most likely to open things up if the game is tight.

Japan:

Best assist providers:

Keito Nakamura - 2

Brazil:

Best assist providers:

Raphinha - 2

Penalty cards:

Casemiro x 2

Casemiro has picked up two yellow cards in his last four matches for Brazil. That's a discipline note rather than anything that tells us about his actual involvement in this specific fixture.