Flamengo vs Gremio Prediction

Flamengo cruising, Gremio stuttering

Across their last 20 matches in all competitions, Flamengo have won 14 and lost only once, scoring 43 and conceding just 15. That's a seriously consistent run for any side in Brazilian football.

Flamengo: 20 completed matches; Gremio: 20 completed matches.

Flamengo

20 matches

Win

70% 14 / 20

Draw

25% 5 / 20

Loss

5% 1 / 20

Scored

43

Conceded

15

Difference

+28

Gremio

20 matches

Win

30% 6 / 20

Draw

20% 4 / 20

Loss

50% 10 / 20

Scored

24

Conceded

28

Difference

-4

Gremio's equivalent run reads very differently: six wins, four draws and ten defeats, with 28 goals conceded against 24 scored. They've leaked goals regularly and struggled for the kind of control Flamengo have shown.

Gremio's defensive numbers on the road are a real concern against a team scoring freely.

Comparative Team Statistics: Flamengo vs Gremio

A fixture with history

These two have met regularly over the years across league and cup competitions, with the head-to-head swinging both ways at different points. The most recent meeting in May this year went 1-0 to Flamengo, following a 1-1 draw the previous August.

Older meetings show some heavy scorelines in both directions, so this fixture hasn't always gone the way the league table might suggest. Still, those results stretch back several seasons and don't tell us much about either side's current form.

Worlds apart in the table

Flamengo sit top of Serie A with 60 points from 28 games, built on 18 wins and just four defeats. Gremio are down in 17th on 29 points from the same number of matches, with 13 losses already on the board.

That's a 31-point gap between two sides meeting on the same weekend, which tells you plenty about where each club's season is heading.

A gap this size in the table usually shows up in performance levels too.

Goals and fitness doubts

Pedro has been Flamengo's main source of goals with 16 in 28 appearances, while Samuel Lino and Carrascal have both chipped in heavily with assists. For Gremio, Carlos Vinícius leads the way with ten goals in 27 games, their clearest attacking threat.

Flamengo:

Best scorers:

Pedro - 16

Samuel Lino - 9

Best assist providers:

Samuel Lino - 7

J. Carrascal - 7

Pedro - 5

Penalty cards:

J. Carrascal x 2 x 2

E. Pulgar x 1 x 6

Jorginho x 1 x 4

Injury list:

Daniel Thuram

Ryan Roberto

Gremio:

Best scorers:

Carlos Vinícius - 10

Penalty cards:

Pedro Gabriel x 7

Injury list:

M. Monsalve

F. Amuzu

M. Braithwaite

Both squads carry some fitness question marks. Gremio have Monsalve, Amuzu and Braithwaite all listed as questionable, while Flamengo have doubts over Daniel Thuram and Ryan Roberto. None of these are confirmed absences, just names worth watching as the game approaches.

Home comfort against a leaky away record

Flamengo's recent form has come with a strong defensive base, conceding at a low rate across 20 games. Gremio's away form in that same stretch has produced plenty of goals against them, suggesting they've found it hard to keep teams out on their travels.

Put the table position and the form trend together and this looks like a tough night for Gremio, even allowing for the unpredictability this fixture has shown in the past.